With the World’s population now past 7 billion and projected to increase to 9 billion by 2050, stress on the food production system is at an all time high. To make matters worse it appears that our crop yields may fall victim to the effects of climate change.
Global warming of only 2°C will be detrimental to the production of rice, wheat and maize in temperate and tropical regions, with reduced yields from the 2030s onwards claims a study, published in Nature Climate Change last year, led by the University of Leeds scientists.
“Climate change means a less predictable harvest, with different countries winning and losing in different years. The overall picture remains negative, and we are now starting to see how research can support adaptation by avoiding the worse impacts,” says lead author Professor Andy Challinor.
The study shows that we will see, on average, an increasingly negative impact of climate change on crop yields from the 2030s onwards. The impact will be greatest in the second half of the century, when decreases of over 25% will become increasingly common.
These statistics already account for minor adaptation techniques employed by farmers to mitigate the effects of climate change, such as small adjustments in crop variety and planting date.
The latest Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports state that the expected temperature increase for the end of the century is somewhere between 1.5 and 4 degree Celsius. And thus, major agricultural transformations and innovations will be needed in order to safeguard crop yields for future generations.
Read the full study here: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n4/full/nclimate2153.html