Tag Archives: IPCC

“So long, and thanks for all the fish” … the end of coral reefs?

Leading scientist says that even ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets will not be able to save the world’s coral reefs.

Professor Peter Sale from the University of Windsor, Canada claims that coral reefs, as they were 50 years ago, cannot be saved from climate change – even if the climate change talks in December this year (COP21) are “wildly successful”.

Professor Sale unveiled the depressing results today at the Goldschmidt conference, a gathering of the world’s top geochemists in Prague.

He said, “Even if Paris is wildly successful, and a treaty is struck, ocean warming and ocean acidification are going to continue beyond the end of this century. This is now serious; I find it very unlikely that coral reefs, as I knew them in the mid-1960s, will still be found anywhere on this planet by mid-century. Instead, we will have algal-dominated, rubble-strewn, slowly eroding limestone benches.”

A bleached coral. These events will become more common with global warming.
A bleached coral. These events will become more common with global warming.

Globally coral reefs are generally found in tropical waters. Not only are they some of the world’s most productive ecosystems they also deliver ecosystem services in tourism, fisheries and coastline protection. The global economic value of coral reefs has been estimated to be US $375 billion per year!

Loss of reefs will be a fatal blow for the animals and communities who rely on them

While the global policy debate has been about trying to limit global warming to 2 degrees by the end of the century, Professor Sale claims that this won’t be enough to save coral reefs.

“I see little hope for reefs unless we embark on a more aggressive emissions reduction plan. Aiming for CO2 at 350ppm, or a total warming of around 1°C is scientifically defendable, and would give reefs a good chance; a number of coral reef scientists have called for this.”

Sale summarised:

“Knowing what we are doing, do we have the ethical right to eliminate an entire ecosystem from this planet? It’s never been done before. But watching as our actions lead to the loss of all coral reefs on the planet is like removing all rainforests. I don’t believe we have that right”.

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Will we lose our crops to climate change?

With the World’s population now past 7 billion and projected to increase to 9 billion by 2050, stress on the food production system is at an all time high. To make matters worse it appears that our crop yields may fall victim to the effects of climate change.

Crop yields to drop by 25 percent towards the second half of the century.
Crop yields to drop by 25 percent towards the second half of the century.

Global warming of only 2°C will be detrimental to the production of rice, wheat and maize in temperate and tropical regions, with reduced yields from the 2030s onwards claims a study, published in Nature Climate Change last year, led by the University of Leeds scientists.

“Climate change means a less predictable harvest, with different countries winning and losing in different years. The overall picture remains negative, and we are now starting to see how research can support adaptation by avoiding the worse impacts,” says lead author Professor Andy Challinor.

The study shows that we will see, on average, an increasingly negative impact of climate change on crop yields from the 2030s onwards. The impact will be greatest in the second half of the century, when decreases of over 25% will become increasingly common.

These statistics already account for minor adaptation techniques employed by farmers to mitigate the effects of climate change, such as small adjustments in crop variety and planting date.

The IPCC projected temperature increase for the next century.
The IPCC projected temperature increase for the next century.

The latest Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports state that the expected temperature increase for the end of the century is somewhere between 1.5 and 4 degree Celsius. And thus, major agricultural transformations and innovations will be needed in order to safeguard crop yields for future generations.

Read the full study here: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n4/full/nclimate2153.html